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Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season
May AoI: south of Baja Organizing deep convection. 04:10, 15 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: south of Baja Another one. 00:00, 22 May 2009 (UTC) I'll be surprised if it won't become an invest, it already have an eye! 23:03, 22 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: south of baja Pretty defined circulation. 05:20, 28 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: south of Mexico Another wave. 23:53, 28 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: near Panama Another one 23:53, 28 May 2009 (UTC) 90E Nothing on NHC yet except TWO. 19:53, 30 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: off Costa Rica Boris-Cristina reform! 01:45, 31 May 2009 (UTC) July Tropical Storm Blanca Wake up!!!!!!!!! Its July 7 . We had a hurricane, one TD, one tropical storm, 3 invests, no discussion. This is when the EPAC start to explode. and look at Blanca it Has AN EYE. Can this be another Boris? Carlos AoI. south of Blanca I am surprised it is not an invest, deep convection. Hurricane Carlos I know people don't pay much attention to EPAC much but they better start, because it's the only place in the world that's spitting out storms. Soudelor in WPAC was a dud. EPAC may be the only fun place to watch for a while. Carlos forecast to reach Cat 2 strength. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:01, 12 July 2009 (UTC) :I keep an eye on the basin, and it's hurricanes like these that I like that with. Carlos is looking sharp right now. Jake52 17:13, 14 July 2009 (UTC) August What's been missed So, since the last time anyone posted here there's been Dolores, Lana, Enrique, and Felicia... the last of which is still puttering on, headed towards Hawaii. --Patteroast 17:01, 9 August 2009 (UTC) :So, Guillermo has formed and is near hurricane strength... headed generally towards Hawaii, but forecast to weaken first. Felicia died before hitting Hawaii and its remnants ended up giving a bit of rain to the islands... Maka formed and abruptly died, although there's still some remnant convection near the date line... and TD9E formed, lingered quite a while, and lost integrity, but NHC's got its remnants at medium chance for redevelopment, which if it does happen looks like it could be in the CPac, giving us a third CPac-named storm this year. At least there's something to watch while the Atlantic continues to be boring! --Patteroast 19:07, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::Guillermo's a hurricane, the remains of TD9E have a medium chance of redeveloping in CPac, and even Maka's remains are showing some signs of life, although they've left for the WPac. --Patteroast 15:32, 14 August 2009 (UTC) :::Guillermo's at 125 mph but forecast to weaken.--L.E./ 14:59, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Gone from NRL Tropical Storm Hilda Darn shear. Just when you have a tropical storm, shear leaves the system exposed. 18 more hours to live. Will it dissipate tomorrow or will it reorganize? :Too bad it didn't wait a little longer to form and give us another CPac name. Although there's another invest out there, now. --Patteroast 12:03, 23 August 2009 (UTC) ::Hilda seems to be getting healthier in the CPac... now forecast to become a hurricane somewhere south of Hawaii. --Patteroast 04:40, 25 August 2009 (UTC) * Will Hilda make it to the WestPac? (The 120 hours forecast as of now sees it as a 75 kn hurricane only 17 degrees away from the dateline.) And if so, would it get a name by the JMA or retain its NHC name? -- 10:16, 25 August 2009 (UTC) :If it did, it'd keep its name, like Maka did earlier in the season. However, it looks like Hilda's not going to survive that long... downgraded to a depression, no longer forecast to become a hurricane. --Patteroast 13:11, 27 August 2009 (UTC) 12E.Ignacio 93E Invest New invest in EPAC. Latest TWO says: A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Tropical Storm Ignacio Named, although first forecast after naming has it dissipating by the end of the forecast period. --Patteroast 04:38, 25 August 2009 (UTC) Aol:Midway between Ignacio and Hilda TWO says SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT A THOUSAND MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. Basins dead again The Basins are dying again. There is nothing in the Atlantic after Bill. WPAC has 9 named storms. NIO has been just as dead as the Atlantic. The only basin that is alive in the EPAC. It is on a REAL hot streak. All of the last ten invests developed. Would not be surprised if the EPAC becomes the most active basin this year. Are the wind shear and water temperature in the EPAC trying to do a Cinderella? :Actually, there's two invests in the Atlantic now, and WPac does have Typhoon Vamco stubbornly holding on as it's shooting straight at the Aleutians... the North Indian not having any activity's par for the course, there. I wouldn't say things are exactly dead right now. Not the most active, but not totally dead either. --Patteroast 04:44, 25 August 2009 (UTC) 13E.Jimena 94E.INVEST Formerly 93L, NHC has it at a medium chance of development. Models seem to think it'll hug the coast. --Patteroast 16:24, 28 August 2009 (UTC) :Whoa, both HWRF and GFDL make this a major hurricane, HWRF a category 4 making landfall in Sinaloa and GFDL a category 3 making landfall in Baja California Sur. NHC's got it at high risk, and is saying it could be a depression any time now. Definitely keeping an eye on this... --Patteroast 01:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 13E Advisories initiated. Forecast keeps it clear of Mexico, hope that proves to be true! --Patteroast 02:45, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Jimena Upgraded, and in the words of NHC 'rapidly intensifying'! Nearly a hurricane, forecast to be a major hurricane, and the forecast cone worryingly has Baja in its sights again... --Patteroast 14:46, 29 August 2009 (UTC) :Ahem. Excuse me, when I went to double check after posting, I noticed that Jimena's already been upgraded to hurricane. Yikes. --Patteroast 14:49, 29 August 2009 (UTC) ::Category 2,and the Forecast goes as high as 125-Kt winds!--L.E./ 01:00, 30 August 2009 (UTC) :::Category 4! And still going. Wow, what a storm! Jimena is stunning. Gorgeous symmetrical appearance, textbook pinhole eye and wicked cloud tops on the IR (though not as cold as I've seen, even recently). I think NHC's forecast peak of 125 knots may be conservative and I think meant to allow for the possibility of an eyewall cycle (which is almost customary of storms like this). I think the actual peak could easily end up being 130-135 knots. IMO, Category 5 is unlikely at this point but I wouldn't rule it out. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:27, 30 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Now at 125Kt(145 mph) with forecast peaking at 130Kt tomorrow.--L.E./ 02:55, 31 August 2009 (UTC) My God. Things have gone from bad to worse for Baja. NHC now puts it right offshore as a 140 mph Category 4. If the current forecast holds, I shudder to think what southern Baja is going to look like come Wednesday morning. This could be the worst hurricane Baja has ever seen. A 140 mph Category 4 doesn't leave much behind. Just ask the citizens of Galveston, Texas c.1900. Better pray for an eyewall cycle at about this time tomorrow. Those in Cabo need to start getting ready to leave right now. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:28, 31 August 2009 (UTC) :150mph at the intermediate advisory.Pressure down to 27.63inHg(936mb)...does that knock 940,sustained all day before,out of the Betting Pool?--L.E./ 20:17, 31 August 2009 (UTC) 14E.Kevin 95E.INVEST Also at medium chance of development, models are making it look like Ignacio 2 at the moment. --Patteroast 16:24, 28 August 2009 (UTC) :High risk now, models still look like a short-lived fish storm, though. --Patteroast 01:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 14E Just upgraded. Forecast shows a storm slowly drifting to the north before dissipating. --Patteroast 14:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kevin It's got a name at the NHC now.--L.E/ 01:01, 30 August 2009 (UTC) 2C.Two 95C.INVEST CPHC's got this at a high risk of development, although if it does it doesn't have much time left to be a CPac storm. C'mon, let's get some more Hawaiian names! Either way, it's headed across the date line soon. --Patteroast 01:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 2C Reached depression strength... forecast only makes it a storm before dissipating... and right on the date line, too! --Patteroast 05:12, 29 August 2009 (UTC) :Crossed the date line, but it's not forecast to become a storm anymore. --Patteroast 21:26, 30 August 2009 (UTC) Betting Pools are here Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season/Betting Pools CPac is super active this year It's not yet september and they have Carlos, Lana, Felicia, 9-E, Maka, Guillermo and Hilda that is seven storms. 19:57, 26 August 2009 (UTC) :EPac too... 8 TCs during August alone! And 3 TCs for CPac. I think I do agree with your statement. Storm's Eye 15:20, 29 August 2009 (UTC) ::Carlos and Nine-E actually dissipated in the Cpac and Lana, Maka, Two-C formed there, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda moved into there, thats a record. 19:32, 29 August 2009 (UTC) :::It's not a record. Welcome to El Nino years. In 1994, eight storms formed in or moved into CPac. They had three Category 5s form in CPac that year (Emilia, Gilma and John). And that's just one year. Some of the 1980s were crazy too. 1982 I believe holds the record in question with 10 storms forming in (3) or moving into (7) CPac. 1992 had seven. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:03, 30 August 2009 (UTC) ::::9 storms before September? 19:29, 30 August 2009 (UTC) :::::Just felt like mentioning that technically, Lana moved into the CPac, as it formed as a depression 6E barely in the EPac. However, it crossed into the CPac before strengthening to a storm. This has happened before a few times. (Ex: Iniki) This is why even though it was the second CPac-named storm, Maka was TD 1C, followed by 2C later. --Patteroast 00:35, 31 August 2009 (UTC) ::::::2009 EPac has had 11 named storms before the end of August. 1992 had 14. Active? Yes. Historic? No. However, it is notable in that 2009 saw the latest start to an East Pacific season in 40 years! 1992 started June 1 with TS Agatha. All eleven storms have formed in a 10-week period which is pretty remarkable. We've had eight storms in August alone, which appears to be a monthly record for the Eastern Pacific (combined with CPac). I've been researching as I was typing this and August, 2009 appears to have set a monthly record for the North Pacific east of the dateline. Wow! I did not expect that. It broke a 3-way tie at seven (August, 1974; July, 1985; August, 2006). The seven in EPac (excluding Maka), ties the record set in 1985. That is remarkable! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 04:21, 31 August 2009 (UTC)